Obama Wins 2012 Election, As Predicted
In doing so he fulfilled a prediction that the authors of The Political Astrology Blog issued earlier this year in April, where we said that based on our astrological analysis we believed that he would win his bid for re-election in November.
It has been an interesting and exciting election to follow. From the primaries, to the conventions, the debates, and then finally election night itself.
Now that it is all over, we wanted to make a few statements about our prediction in retrospect, although a full postmortem analysis of the election and what we have learned from it will have to wait until later.
The Political Astrology Blog’s Prediction
Our official prediction was published on April 29, 2012, in an article titled Prediction for the 2012 US Presidential Election. A summary of the prediction was given at the end of the article:
To summarize, it looks like both candidates will come out of their respective conventions over the summer in very good shape, with each entering into very strong periods astrologically in both of their respective charts.
However, Romney switches into a difficult period starting in mid-October, and this seems to reflect that his campaign will encounter some problems at that time. This difficult period for Romney lasts all the way until early December, and so it appears to reflect that he will lose the election, since Obama encounters nothing comparably difficult during the same time frame.
We have some concerns that the Mercury retrograde on election day could reflect some problems or controversy with the election itself, as it did in 2000, but ultimately based on the considerations outlined above, as well as some that we did not include in this writeup, it is our opinion that Obama will be elected to a second term.
We arrived at our prediction largely by studying the birth charts of the two candidates, and by applying timing techniques to see what parts of their charts would be activated during the course of the election, particularly around Election Day, although we paid attention to other time periods as well.
Prediction of Mid-October Difficulties For Romney
One of the things that made our prediction unique from those issued by other astrologers is that we identified a specific point in the election where, according to our techniques, Romney’s campaign seemed like it would encounter a period of difficulties that would result in the loss of the election.
In our analysis of Romney’s chart in the official prediction article we pointed out that the more difficult period for him would begin on October 13, 2012:
However, on October 13 Romney moves into a Virgo L3 period that lasts until early December, thus encompassing the last few weeks of the election, as well as election night itself and its aftermath. … It is almost as if things are going well in the Romney campaign in the first month and a half following the convention, but then something goes awry from mid-October forward.
Looking at it now in retrospect, it seems that mid-October turned out to be about the point when Romney’s sharp rise in the polls as a result of his success in the first debate came to an end. More interestingly, we may have some external confirmation from an unlikely source that our prediction was correct — New York Times pollster Nate Silver.
Nate Silver’s Analysis Confirms Astrological Prediction
In the past few days after the election ended Nate Silver has been universally hailed for his predictive model, which not only correctly predicted who would win 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election, but also accurately predicted which candidate would win each of the 50 states in the 2012 election.
On October 31 he published an article on his blog titled Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls. You have to read the entire article in order to really understand the significance of it from the perspective of our prediction, but here is one of the more relevant excerpts:
On Oct. 11, this blog posed the question of whether President Obama’s “firewall” in battleground states was all that it was cracked up to be.
Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped.
Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind.
The graph that appeared in the sidebar of Silver’s blog towards the end of the election made the case a bit more dramatically. It shows the probabilities of each candidate winning based on Silver’s meta-analysis of national and state polls:
Note the shift in the graph right around October 13, with the blue line representing Obama and the red line representing Romney.
According to Silver’s meta-analysis, Romney and Obama were growing closer and closer in the polls in early October, and thus Romney’s chance of winning was growing higher, but then October 13 was the point where they started to diverge, with Obama’s chances going up and Romney’s going down. This trend continued, and even accelerated, right through to Election Day.
There weren’t really any major events or scandals in mid-October, so this all seems to be tied in to each candidate’s performance in the debates. And this makes sense, since the polls after the 2nd and 3rd presidential debates seemed to indicate that the general public thought that Obama had won, although the results of the VP debate seemed a bit more mixed at the time.
Of course, after the debates came Hurricane Sandy, which ultimately seemed to help Obama and hurt Romney.
The important point here is that Nate Silver’s meta-analysis appears to provide us with an objective piece of evidence that supports that a crucial part of our prediction was correct — that although Romney would go into mid-October strong, things would go awry beginning around October 13.
A Win for the Astrological Community
We weren’t the only astrologers who correctly predicted that Obama would win.
A panel of five astrologers representing different astrological traditions at the United Astrology Conference in May unanimously predicted that Obama would win the election. Chris Brennan represented the authors of the Political Astrology Blog on the panel, although it is worth noting that there were four other astrologers who used different techniques and traditions, and they also came to the same conclusion.
Additionally, we would also like to point out that, according to the survey of published astrological predictions that we posted on October 29, the vast majority of astrologers who issued public predictions about the election said that Obama would win.
According to our survey of 45 predictions, 31 said that Obama would win, while 14 said that Romney would win. Thus, astrologers were predicting that Obama would win 2 to 1.
Mercury Retrograde Difficulties
Another element of our prediction from April was that there would be some problems surrounding the election due to the Mercury retrograde station that would occur on Election Day.
In our original prediction from April we mentioned this as a side note, saying that we had “some concerns that the Mercury retrograde on election day could reflect some problems or controversy with the election itself, as it did in 2000…” Later in August we expanded on that point in an article titled Mercury Retrograde and the 2012 Election, where we talked about how other elections have turned out when they coincided with Mercury retrograde periods.
Finally, in our roundup of astrological predictions in October we pointed out that most of the astrologers who issued predictions about the election had mentioned the Mercury retrograde, and the general consensus was that it would “coincide with some problems and potentially some delays in the electoral process…”
Ultimately this is an area where the results were more mixed. On the one hand, there clearly were a number of issues that cropped up around the time of the election which created some unique ‘problems and delays’ on Election Day, and yet it did not turn into an exact repeat of the 2000 election, which was a possibility that many astrologers raised.
Obviously the most striking event was the fact that the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, Hurricane Sandy, slammed into the Northeastern United States the week before the election, which caused a number of disruptions and delays for millions of voters in the Northeast states on Election Day.
In New York and New Jersey displaced residents were granted the right to vote anywhere in the state, with New Jersey even allowing ballots to be sent in by email or fax. Issues with the email ballots in New Jersey subsequently caused the deadline for returning them to be extended to Friday, but there were still major issues with the process. ABC News published an article the day after the election titled Email Voting for N.J. Storm Victims Failed, Votes Not Counted Tuesday:
“This is an unprecedented disaster,” Essex County clerk Chris Durkin told the Montclair Times. “People will be disenfranchised because of this unprecedented disaster.”
Election officials around the state were bombarded by requests from voters to vote electronically. Each request took staffers up to 15 minutes to process as they received the email or fax request, checked the voter registration lists for matching identities, and completed paperwork before emailing a ballot to the voter.
In Hudson County, in northern New Jersey, the county clerk had received more than 2,000 requests for email ballots by Tuesday morning, at which point they stopped processing requests altogether.
The Seattle Times published an article on the night of November 6 titled Voters Endure Long Waits, Irregularities in Some States, detailing some of the other issues in different parts of the country on Election Day:
A big turnout, voting-machine breakdowns and misinformation about voter-eligibility requirements snarled balloting at many polling places Tuesday, forcing Americans to wait as long as five hours to vote.
Accusations over voting rights, irregularities and “inexcusable” election planning flew in the key states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida.
Virginia and Florida held polls open until midnight for voters who were in line when the polls were scheduled to close…
In Pennsylvania, complaints poured in of voters being falsely informed of photo-ID requirements that had been set aside by the courts. In Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, dozens and perhaps many more voters’ names were missing from the rolls, creating suspicions of an improper purge of eligible voters’ names.
In Richland County, S.C., Sharon Bruce waited for nearly five hours to vote.
Voters across Virginia endured long waits — up to five hours in Chesapeake…
In Pinellas County, Fla., automated phone calls from the supervisor of elections advised more the 12,000 voters that Election Day was Wednesday, before the glitch was corrected.
Obama even mentioned some of the delays that occurred around the country in his acceptance speech on Election Night:
I want to thank every American who participated in this election, whether you voted for the very first time or waited in line for a very long time. By the way, we have to fix that.
Yet, despite these issues, they do not appear to have been widespread enough to alter the course of the election, and Obama was declared the winner before Election Day was even over.
The only major repeat of the 2000 election occurred in Florida, where long lines and a razor thin margin between the two candidates resulted in a protracted vote tallying period that extended beyond Election Day. Even now, as of early Saturday, November 10, the outcome in Florida still has not been determined.
As many news sources have noted, the debacle in Florida is almost like a repeat of the 2000 election, except that in this case it didn’t matter, because Florida’s electoral votes are not enough to change the outcome of the election.
So were there delays and problems on Election Day? Yes, but ultimately they were not as bad as they could have been, and some of the more dire scenarios envisioned by astrologers and political pundits in the lead up to the election did not come to pass.
We want to wrap this up by thanking our readers for following our coverage throughout the course of the election season. It has been a fun and interesting ride, and we’ve appreciated a lot of the feedback and tips we’ve received along the way.
We would also like to thank some of the astrologers who followed the conventions and the debates with us live, and helped us to take notes about important times.
Finally, we would like to thank those astrologers who were brave enough to “put their money where their mouth is,” and to test their predictive skills by issuing a public prediction about the outcome of the election. Whether you were right or wrong, we believe that the act of prediction is an important part of the process that will allow us to improve and refine the techniques of astrology, and we’ve been able to learn a lot simply by studying the work of our colleagues.
So, that’s it for the 2012 election. Now on to 2016…